Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Danforth shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Danforth 48.8% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.3%
Defensive zone
Danforth 71.7%
Neutral zone
Danforth 59.7%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Nelson
Danforth
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Danforth
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Danforth
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Danforth
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danforth
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
51.2% (281)
-5.1%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
55.6% (9)
-21.1%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
35.8% (67)
-5.4%
On power play, Danforth has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danforth shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Danforth is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danforth
Home
48.7% (419)
52.0% (196)
Away
41.3% (368)
44.1% (161)
By Period
Nelson
Danforth
P1
44.6%
48.2%
P2
47.3%
52.8%
P3
43.0%
42.2%
OT
100.0%
83.3%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 4, 2024 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |