Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Zibanejad 46.9% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 77.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Nelson
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Nelson
Zibanejad
Last 8: Nelson 2-6 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
Nelson
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
2
Nelson
Zibanejad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
3
Nelson
Zibanejad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
48.8% (334)
-6.7%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
36.4% (55)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
0.0% (8)
+38.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +38.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Nelson is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Nelson shoots left. Zibanejad is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (275).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zibanejad
Home
43.8% (224)
47.3% (203)
Away
41.0% (227)
44.8% (194)
By Period
Nelson
Zibanejad
P1
48.1%
44.8%
P2
38.4%
44.8%
P3
39.2%
49.5%
OT
75.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
41.4%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
42.4%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2014 | 3 | 07:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2014 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 2, 2014 | 3 | 03:50 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 2, 2014 | 2 | 15:20 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 2, 2014 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 2, 2014 | 1 | 17:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2014 | 1 | 13:54 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 2, 2014 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |