Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (66% H2H, 79 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Zibanejad 50.0% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 121-101 in 222 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.0%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 50.7%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 51.0%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Nelson
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
101
-
121
(222 meetings)
101
121
Nelson
Zibanejad
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
34
30
Nelson
Zibanejad
64 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
27
52
Nelson
Zibanejad
79 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
40
39
Nelson
Zibanejad
79 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
50.9% (11,756)
-3.0%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
52.2% (1,852)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
41.6% (1,796)
+2.2%
On even strength, Zibanejad has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (10,710).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zibanejad
Home
50.1% (5,878)
51.6% (7,603)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
48.3% (7,802)
By Period
Nelson
Zibanejad
P1
48.7%
50.4%
P2
48.6%
49.7%
P3
47.7%
49.9%
OT
45.6%
48.7%
Final 5 min
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:27 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:05 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |