Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Zibanejad 49.5% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.7%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 67.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Nelson
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Nelson
Zibanejad
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Zibanejad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
2
Nelson
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Zibanejad
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
50.1% (1,051)
-3.2%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
58.3% (120)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
41.9% (227)
-16.9%
On penalty kill, Zibanejad has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Zibanejad is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,029).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zibanejad
Home
48.9% (521)
49.0% (681)
Away
45.5% (516)
49.9% (717)
By Period
Nelson
Zibanejad
P1
45.9%
49.9%
P2
48.0%
47.6%
P3
48.0%
51.1%
OT
33.3%
48.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.3%
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 19:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 06:35 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:04 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2 | 13:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 05:34 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |