Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Nelson
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Nelson
Zibanejad
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Zibanejad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
3
Nelson
Zibanejad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
4
Nelson
Zibanejad
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
53.3% (807)
-2.4%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
47.6% (42)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
46.3% (147)
-2.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zibanejad
Home
52.9% (654)
49.8% (466)
Away
48.9% (658)
54.0% (530)
By Period
Nelson
Zibanejad
P1
48.4%
52.9%
P2
54.3%
51.2%
P3
50.5%
51.7%
OT
41.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Zibanejad
58.0%▲
53.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:27 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |