Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Geekie 49.3% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 66.6%
Defensive zone
Geekie 72.1%
Neutral zone
Geekie 53.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Nelson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Nelson
Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Geekie
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Geekie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
49.9% (505)
-3.0%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
0.0% (6)
+57.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
48.4% (93)
-23.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +57.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Geekie is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (437).
Home / Away
Nelson
Geekie
Home
48.9% (521)
50.0% (314)
Away
45.5% (516)
48.3% (290)
By Period
Nelson
Geekie
P1
45.9%
51.3%
P2
48.0%
46.9%
P3
48.0%
49.5%
Final 5 min
45.3%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
47.3%
Geekie
46.0%▬
47.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 15:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |