Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.1% vs 48.3%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Geekie 48.4% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Geekie 51.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Nelson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Nelson
Geekie
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Geekie
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
2
Nelson
Geekie
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Geekie
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
48.7% (2,289)
-0.9%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
45.9% (183)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
45.7% (129)
-2.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Geekie is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,909).
Home / Away
Nelson
Geekie
Home
49.8% (5,696)
50.0% (1,277)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
46.8% (1,324)
By Period
Nelson
Geekie
P1
48.6%
48.4%
P2
48.4%
48.9%
P3
47.4%
47.5%
OT
46.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.4%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Geekie
42.0%▼
44.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 13:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:04 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:37 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 02:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 15:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |