Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.4%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Geekie 48.5% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Nelson
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Nelson
Geekie
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Geekie
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
2
Nelson
Geekie
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Geekie
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
48.7% (2,310)
-0.8%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
46.0% (189)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
45.7% (129)
-1.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Geekie is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,927).
Home / Away
Nelson
Geekie
Home
50.1% (5,878)
50.1% (1,283)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
46.8% (1,345)
By Period
Nelson
Geekie
P1
48.7%
48.6%
P2
48.6%
48.9%
P3
47.7%
47.7%
OT
45.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Geekie
46.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 13:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 12:04 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:37 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 1 | 02:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 15:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |