Scouting Report
Phillip Danault holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Danault 54.5% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.4%
Defensive zone
Danault 62.7%
Neutral zone
Danault 53.4%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Nelson
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nelson
Danault
Last 7: Nelson 4-3 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Danault
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
1
2
Nelson
Danault
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Danault
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
56.2% (745)
-5.3%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
45.1% (51)
+14.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
51.6% (124)
-8.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Danault is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danault
Home
52.9% (654)
56.7% (402)
Away
48.9% (658)
53.7% (518)
By Period
Nelson
Danault
P1
48.4%
55.5%
P2
54.3%
54.2%
P3
50.5%
55.2%
OT
41.2%
55.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Danault
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |