Scouting Report
Phillip Danault holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Danault 54.4% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Danault 54.9%
Defensive zone
Danault 68.3%
Neutral zone
Danault 61.2%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
Nelson
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nelson
Danault
Last 7: Nelson 4-3 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Danault
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
1
2
Nelson
Danault
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Danault
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
56.7% (561)
-6.7%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
43.9% (41)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
50.0% (94)
-8.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Nelson shoots left. Danault is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (452).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danault
Home
50.4% (472)
58.4% (279)
Away
48.6% (477)
52.8% (417)
By Period
Nelson
Danault
P1
47.2%
55.5%
P2
53.4%
55.7%
P3
47.8%
54.5%
OT
50.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
47.6%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Danault
62.0%▲
58.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |