Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 51.3%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Greig 51.1% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.5%
Defensive zone
Greig 65.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.1%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Nelson
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Greig
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
51.9% (347)
-1.0%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
66.7% (24)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
44.8% (87)
-1.4%
On power play, Greig has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Nelson
Greig
Home
52.9% (654)
50.4% (254)
Away
48.9% (658)
52.5% (204)
By Period
Nelson
Greig
P1
48.4%
45.9%
P2
54.3%
60.1%
P3
50.5%
49.2%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |