Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.9%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Greig 49.0% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 66.4%
Defensive zone
Greig 67.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Nelson
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Nelson
Greig
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Greig
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
3
Nelson
Greig
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
48.7% (1,144)
-0.8%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
56.8% (74)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
47.2% (178)
-3.4%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Nelson
Greig
Home
50.1% (5,878)
49.9% (688)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
48.0% (708)
By Period
Nelson
Greig
P1
48.7%
46.0%
P2
48.6%
51.8%
P3
47.7%
49.1%
OT
45.6%
28.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:59 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 05:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |