Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs McLeod 47.4% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 83.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 73.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Nelson
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
McLeod
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Nelson
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
49.0% (827)
+1.9%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
44.0% (91)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
43.0% (272)
+0.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
Nelson
McLeod
Home
52.9% (654)
48.5% (619)
Away
48.9% (658)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Nelson
McLeod
P1
48.4%
52.7%
P2
54.3%
43.9%
P3
50.5%
45.8%
OT
41.2%
35.7%
Final 5 min
51.9%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 11:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |