Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Poehling 48.0% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 77.1%
Neutral zone
Poehling 60.4%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Nelson
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Poehling
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Nelson
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Nelson
Poehling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
50.4% (680)
+0.5%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
58.3% (12)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
38.8% (219)
+4.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Poehling is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Nelson
Poehling
Home
52.9% (654)
47.4% (422)
Away
48.9% (658)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Nelson
Poehling
P1
48.4%
53.3%
P2
54.3%
40.3%
P3
50.5%
50.0%
OT
41.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 18:02 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 11:24 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 11:38 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:54 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |