Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.2%). Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Poehling 48.3% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Poehling leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.9%
Defensive zone
Poehling 66.9%
Neutral zone
Poehling 53.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Nelson
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
12
(17 meetings)
5
12
Nelson
Poehling
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
3
5
Nelson
Poehling
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
4
Nelson
Poehling
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
3
Nelson
Poehling
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
49.6% (2,780)
-1.7%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
51.6% (93)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
41.7% (635)
+2.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Poehling is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,357).
Home / Away
Nelson
Poehling
Home
50.1% (5,878)
49.3% (1,706)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
47.2% (1,802)
By Period
Nelson
Poehling
P1
48.7%
50.8%
P2
48.6%
47.1%
P3
47.7%
47.2%
OT
45.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 18:02 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 11:24 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 11:38 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:54 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:55 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 02:45 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 06:25 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 07:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:02 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 1 | 06:04 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |