Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Strome 45.9% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 53.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.1%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Nelson
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
0
1
Nelson
Strome
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Strome
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
45.4% (315)
+5.5%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
35.7% (28)
+24.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
50.0% (4)
-6.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Strome is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (250).
Home / Away
Nelson
Strome
Home
52.9% (654)
42.6% (188)
Away
48.9% (658)
47.2% (159)
By Period
Nelson
Strome
P1
48.4%
38.6%
P2
54.3%
48.4%
P3
50.5%
46.2%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 16:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |