Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Strome 44.6% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 49-37 in 86 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 75.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 76.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Nelson
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
49
-
37
(86 meetings)
49
37
Nelson
Strome
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
15
8
Nelson
Strome
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
18
14
Nelson
Strome
32 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
16
15
Nelson
Strome
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
44.2% (6,887)
+3.7%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
49.2% (855)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
41.5% (410)
+2.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Strome is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,773).
Home / Away
Nelson
Strome
Home
50.1% (5,878)
44.4% (4,077)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
44.8% (4,075)
By Period
Nelson
Strome
P1
48.7%
43.9%
P2
48.6%
45.4%
P3
47.7%
44.4%
OT
45.6%
46.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 16:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 05:32 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 11:38 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 09:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 18:58 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 15:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 01:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |