Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 51.8%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Nosek 51.4% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 57.2%
Defensive zone
Nosek 58.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Nelson
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Nelson
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
53.0% (400)
-1.7%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
33.3% (12)
+25.4%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
45.5% (44)
+6.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Nosek is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (304).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nosek
Home
52.5% (590)
49.6% (244)
Away
51.7% (619)
54.2% (212)
By Period
Nelson
Nosek
P1
50.5%
53.1%
P2
54.4%
51.4%
P3
51.4%
51.1%
Final 5 min
57.3%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Nosek
56.0%▬
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 14:51 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |