Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Jost 40.5% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 96.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 83.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 88.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 89.8%
89.8%
10.2%
Nelson
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Nelson
Jost
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
0
Nelson
Jost
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
3
4
Nelson
Jost
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Jost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
41.0% (2,016)
+6.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
34.2% (73)
+20.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
35.2% (256)
+8.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Jost is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,469).
Home / Away
Nelson
Jost
Home
50.1% (5,878)
41.9% (1,240)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
38.1% (1,105)
By Period
Nelson
Jost
P1
48.7%
38.5%
P2
48.6%
41.1%
P3
47.7%
40.9%
OT
45.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 01:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 18:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 18:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 18:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 07:19 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 01:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 3 | 11:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 2 | 09:30 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 7, 2022 | 1 | 14:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2017 | 3 | 05:25 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |