Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.2% vs Barzal 41.4% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 52.7%
Defensive zone
Coyle 83.8%
Neutral zone
Coyle 72.8%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Coyle
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Coyle
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (612)
40.4% (456)
+11.2%
Power Play
42.6% (47)
34.2% (38)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (146)
28.6% (7)
+18.0%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Coyle is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Coyle shoots right. Barzal is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Home / Away
Coyle
Barzal
Home
47.5% (394)
38.0% (242)
Away
52.8% (411)
41.3% (259)
By Period
Coyle
Barzal
P1
49.6%
46.6%
P2
48.9%
35.4%
P3
52.0%
38.0%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.8%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
54.0%▲
49.5%
50.2%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |