Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Barzal 42.2% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 16-11 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 65.2%
Defensive zone
Coyle 88.1%
Neutral zone
Coyle 87.0%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Coyle
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
11
(27 meetings)
16
11
Coyle
Barzal
Last 10: Coyle 8-2 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
4
5
Coyle
Barzal
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
6
3
Coyle
Barzal
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
6
3
Coyle
Barzal
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (7,657)
41.9% (3,558)
+7.4%
Power Play
50.0% (778)
43.4% (205)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,055)
42.3% (26)
+1.5%
On even strength, Coyle has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Coyle is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,699).
Coyle shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,094).
Home / Away
Coyle
Barzal
Home
49.7% (4,692)
43.1% (1,893)
Away
47.9% (4,798)
40.9% (1,896)
By Period
Coyle
Barzal
P1
49.5%
40.6%
P2
48.2%
44.4%
P3
48.6%
41.0%
OT
49.3%
27.6%
Final 5 min
48.1%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.7%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 03:16 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 15:30 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 3 | 03:23 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 05:41 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 17:35 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 03:57 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 3 | 01:57 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 15:21 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 3 | 13:47 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 3 | 11:06 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 11:42 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 3 | 17:35 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |