Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Sillinger wins 43.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sillinger 45.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 15-9 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Sillinger 90.6%
Defensive zone
Sillinger 83.7%
Neutral zone
Sillinger 82.0%
Result
Cole Sillinger favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Sillinger
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
15
(24 meetings)
9
15
Sillinger
Hertl
Last 10: Sillinger 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Sillinger
Hertl
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
5
Sillinger
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Sillinger
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sillinger
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (2,803)
53.9% (8,303)
-7.8%
Power Play
50.0% (180)
59.2% (1,995)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
36.9% (225)
46.3% (806)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sillinger is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,099).
Sillinger shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Sillinger
Hertl
Home
46.5% (1,622)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
44.8% (1,586)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Sillinger
Hertl
P1
45.6%
53.6%
P2
45.5%
54.2%
P3
45.8%
55.3%
OT
47.8%
46.9%
Final 5 min
48.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sillinger
44.0%▲
40.5%
45.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 00:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 05:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 12:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 04:22 | Offensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:54 | Defensive | Cole Sillinger |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:52 | Neutral | Cole Sillinger |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 13:41 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 17:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |