Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bedard wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs McBain 49.9% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 71.3%
Defensive zone
McBain 65.4%
Neutral zone
McBain 67.4%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 69.9%
30.1%
69.9%
Bedard
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Bedard
McBain
Last 7: Bedard 4-3 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
4
1
Bedard
McBain
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
0
1
Bedard
McBain
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
0
1
Bedard
McBain
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
51.2% (424)
-13.2%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
46.2% (13)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
27.3% (22)
+29.8%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +29.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Bedard is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Bedard shoots right. McBain is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Bedard
McBain
Home
40.5% (316)
53.6% (235)
Away
36.2% (340)
46.0% (224)
By Period
Bedard
McBain
P1
37.2%
48.6%
P2
36.9%
50.9%
P3
40.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.4%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
32.0%▼
47.5%
38.3%
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 17:06 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:49 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 14:00 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:40 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |