Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs McBain 50.9% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 58.6%
Defensive zone
McBain 66.4%
Neutral zone
McBain 73.2%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Bedard
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Bedard
McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
McBain
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
52.5% (569)
-8.3%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
42.1% (19)
+24.6%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
36.2% (47)
+17.6%
On power play, Bedard has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Bedard shoots right. McBain is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (261).
Home / Away
Bedard
McBain
Home
50.7% (223)
52.4% (309)
Away
42.6% (331)
49.7% (326)
By Period
Bedard
McBain
P1
40.2%
54.0%
P2
49.2%
52.7%
P3
47.2%
46.5%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | OT | 02:24 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:33 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:25 | Neutral | Jack McBain |