Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Bedard wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs McBain 46.7% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
McBain leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 62.0%
Defensive zone
McBain 56.7%
Neutral zone
McBain 53.1%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Bedard
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Bedard
McBain
Last 10: Bedard 6-4 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
6
1
Bedard
McBain
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
0
4
Bedard
McBain
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
1
2
Bedard
McBain
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
48.1% (2,322)
-7.9%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
44.6% (56)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
35.6% (309)
+14.4%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Bedard is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,259).
Bedard shoots right. McBain is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Home / Away
Bedard
McBain
Home
43.3% (785)
49.1% (1,379)
Away
38.9% (957)
44.0% (1,308)
By Period
Bedard
McBain
P1
38.9%
47.1%
P2
41.2%
47.4%
P3
42.5%
45.4%
OT
42.9%
37.5%
Final 5 min
44.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | OT | 02:24 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:33 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:25 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 17:06 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:49 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 14:00 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:40 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Jack McBain |