Scouting Report
Connor Dewar holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 48.1% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Dewar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Dewar
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Dewar
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
1
0
Dewar
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (114)
45.8% (755)
-0.2%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
48.3% (60)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (17)
27.6% (29)
+25.3%
On penalty kill, Dewar has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Dewar is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (60).
Dewar shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Dewar
MacKinnon
Home
45.3% (64)
49.5% (396)
Away
47.8% (69)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Dewar
MacKinnon
P1
33.3%
50.2%
P2
44.2%
43.8%
P3
64.1%
41.4%
Final 5 min
58.1%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
46.6%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 12:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |