Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dewar wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 47.1% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 88.7%
Defensive zone
Dewar 71.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 60.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Dewar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Dewar
MacKinnon
Last 7: Dewar 4-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Dewar
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
3
1
Dewar
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (57)
49.7% (1,038)
-0.6%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
63.7% (157)
+36.3%
Penalty Kill
32.3% (31)
34.4% (32)
-2.1%
On power play, Dewar has a +36.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Dewar is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (38).
Dewar shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Dewar
MacKinnon
Home
50.0% (34)
53.1% (618)
Away
40.0% (55)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Dewar
MacKinnon
P1
46.7%
49.3%
P2
30.0%
53.0%
P3
59.3%
50.7%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
42.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
43.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 02:46 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |