Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Jankowski 53.1% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 55.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 52.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 54.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
McDavid
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McDavid
Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
1
McDavid
Jankowski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
53.7% (555)
-6.0%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
50.0% (14)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
54.3% (46)
-5.4%
On even strength, Jankowski has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Jankowski is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Home / Away
McDavid
Jankowski
Home
50.0% (412)
53.2% (331)
Away
45.7% (394)
54.2% (284)
By Period
McDavid
Jankowski
P1
48.0%
52.7%
P2
48.5%
55.8%
P3
47.1%
52.5%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Jankowski
52.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |