Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Strome 44.6% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Strome leads 27-26 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 51.0%
Defensive zone
Strome 51.7%
Neutral zone
Strome 50.8%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
McDavid
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
27
(53 meetings)
26
27
McDavid
Strome
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
5
9
McDavid
Strome
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
11
8
McDavid
Strome
19 total
Neutral Zone
Even
10
10
McDavid
Strome
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
44.2% (6,887)
+3.5%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
49.2% (855)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
41.5% (410)
+2.3%
On even strength, McDavid has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Strome is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,773).
Home / Away
McDavid
Strome
Home
49.3% (4,582)
44.4% (4,077)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
44.8% (4,075)
By Period
McDavid
Strome
P1
46.5%
43.9%
P2
48.7%
45.4%
P3
48.3%
44.4%
OT
42.2%
46.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 15:32 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 16:15 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 00:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:38 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |