Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Zegras 43.3% (+12.7%)
Offensive zone
McDavid 51.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 65.9%
Neutral zone
Zegras 50.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
McDavid
Zegras
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
39.8% (128)
+11.8%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
22.2% (9)
+27.8%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
0.0% (1)
+36.4%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +36.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Zegras is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (102).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zegras
Home
51.8% (415)
29.7% (74)
Away
50.4% (450)
48.4% (64)
By Period
McDavid
Zegras
P1
47.5%
40.7%
P2
51.6%
35.1%
P3
55.5%
41.0%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
51.1%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.4%