Connor McDavid vs Trevor Zegras
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Zegras 39.5% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 92.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 86.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 85.0%
85.0%
15.0%
McDavid
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
McDavid
Zegras
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
4
McDavid
Zegras
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
39.0% (1,703)
+8.7%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
38.5% (148)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
25.0% (8)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Zegras is 39.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,252).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zegras
Home
49.3% (4,582)
40.5% (908)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
37.3% (951)
By Period
McDavid
Zegras
P1
46.5%
40.0%
P2
48.7%
38.6%
P3
48.3%
38.2%
OT
42.2%
31.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:16 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 06:35 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:12 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 18:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |