Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Zegras 37.0% (+15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 69.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.1%
Neutral zone
Zegras 53.5%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
McDavid
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McDavid
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
McDavid
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
33.0% (264)
+14.7%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
32.1% (56)
+17.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
50.0% (2)
-1.1%
On power play, McDavid has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
McDavid
Zegras
Home
50.0% (412)
35.3% (173)
Away
45.7% (394)
30.2% (149)
By Period
McDavid
Zegras
P1
48.0%
33.0%
P2
48.5%
35.7%
P3
47.1%
29.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:16 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |