Connor McMichael vs Sebastian Aho
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McMichael on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings). McMichael wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.4% vs Aho 51.3% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 64.6%
Defensive zone
McMichael 62.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 53.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
McMichael
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
McMichael
Aho
Last 10: McMichael 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
5
4
McMichael
Aho
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
3
McMichael
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McMichael
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (1,542)
50.1% (6,415)
-6.8%
Power Play
46.6% (133)
59.1% (1,297)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (143)
46.0% (446)
-8.9%
On power play, Aho has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McMichael is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,217).
McMichael shoots left. Aho is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,145).
Home / Away
McMichael
Aho
Home
42.8% (945)
52.4% (4,199)
Away
43.3% (873)
50.2% (3,959)
By Period
McMichael
Aho
P1
43.1%
51.2%
P2
43.4%
52.1%
P3
42.2%
50.8%
OT
75.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
42.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:26 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:16 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 15:00 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:03 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 11:40 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 06:07 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 19:22 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 19:12 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 04:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:26 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 03:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 3 | 16:34 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 1 | 02:11 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |