Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.0% vs Larkin 54.2% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 71.4%
Defensive zone
Lazar 60.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Lazar
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Lazar
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Lazar
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lazar
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (356)
52.6% (1,117)
-1.2%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
60.7% (305)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
55.9% (177)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lazar is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Lazar shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Lazar
Larkin
Home
49.7% (163)
54.7% (783)
Away
52.3% (237)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Lazar
Larkin
P1
46.9%
55.9%
P2
53.3%
56.1%
P3
53.3%
51.1%
Final 5 min
52.1%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
51.3%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:41 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |