Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.2% vs Larkin 52.7% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Lazar leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 84.0%
Defensive zone
Lazar 53.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 60.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Lazar
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
12
(30 meetings)
18
12
Lazar
Larkin
Last 10: Lazar 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
7
Lazar
Larkin
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
9
3
Lazar
Larkin
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
5
2
Lazar
Larkin
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (2,665)
51.6% (9,056)
-1.4%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
58.6% (2,140)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (415)
50.2% (1,124)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lazar is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,288).
Lazar shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Home / Away
Lazar
Larkin
Home
50.1% (1,549)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
48.2% (1,596)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Lazar
Larkin
P1
48.9%
52.7%
P2
48.9%
53.1%
P3
49.5%
52.0%
OT
56.5%
58.4%
Final 5 min
49.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
49.2%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:07 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:41 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 03:09 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 3 | 10:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 2 | 18:20 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 2 | 16:36 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 1 | 03:10 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 6, 2020 | OT | 03:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 6, 2020 | OT | 02:00 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 6, 2020 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |