Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 61.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Larkin 52.2% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lazar 63.1%
Defensive zone
Lazar 95.9%
Neutral zone
Lazar 82.6%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 95.9%
95.9%
4.1%
Lazar
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Lazar
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
0
Lazar
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
63.5% (181)
51.1% (915)
+12.4%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
59.4% (261)
-59.4%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
48.2% (168)
+8.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +59.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lazar is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Lazar shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Home / Away
Lazar
Larkin
Home
63.0% (135)
51.7% (686)
Away
59.3% (118)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Lazar
Larkin
P1
64.6%
52.5%
P2
60.0%
52.7%
P3
59.3%
51.4%
Final 5 min
67.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
61.3%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:07 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |