Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 61.5% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Frost 56.4% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 86.2%
Defensive zone
Lazar 83.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Lazar
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Lazar
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
1
0
Lazar
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Lazar
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
63.5% (181)
56.0% (755)
+7.5%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
60.1% (173)
-60.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
88.9% (9)
-32.6%
On power play, Frost has a +60.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Lazar is 61.5% vs left-shot opponents (205).
Lazar shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Lazar
Frost
Home
63.0% (135)
57.3% (497)
Away
59.3% (118)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Lazar
Frost
P1
64.6%
60.2%
P2
60.0%
56.0%
P3
59.3%
54.8%
Final 5 min
67.2%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
61.3%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:26 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |