Scouting Report
David Gustafsson holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gustafsson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Gustafsson wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gustafsson 49.5% vs Roy 48.3% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gustafsson 53.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 56.6%
Neutral zone
Roy 52.5%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Gustafsson
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Gustafsson
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Gustafsson
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gustafsson
2
1
Gustafsson
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gustafsson
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (182)
48.3% (633)
+2.8%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
52.1% (48)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (18)
43.7% (87)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Gustafsson is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (75).
Gustafsson shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Gustafsson
Roy
Home
54.2% (96)
50.8% (376)
Away
45.1% (113)
45.4% (392)
By Period
Gustafsson
Roy
P1
58.5%
53.8%
P2
39.5%
43.5%
P3
51.5%
46.4%
Final 5 min
58.6%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gustafsson
58.0%▲
50.0%
49.3%
Roy
54.0%▲
52.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 30, 2022 | 3 | 14:02 | Neutral | David Gustafsson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | David Gustafsson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |