Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Geekie on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Mercer wins 39.9% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Geekie 48.5% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 77.0%
Defensive zone
Mercer 83.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 78.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Mercer
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Mercer
Geekie
Last 9: Mercer 1-8 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Geekie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
4
Mercer
Geekie
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
4
Mercer
Geekie
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
48.7% (2,310)
-9.6%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
46.0% (189)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
45.7% (129)
-4.4%
On even strength, Geekie has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Mercer is 39.9% vs right-shot opponents (449).
Mercer shoots right. Geekie is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (701).
Home / Away
Mercer
Geekie
Home
40.1% (756)
50.1% (1,283)
Away
38.5% (792)
46.8% (1,345)
By Period
Mercer
Geekie
P1
38.2%
48.6%
P2
39.2%
48.9%
P3
41.2%
47.7%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.3%
Geekie
46.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 17:11 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 05:54 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 02:01 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 13:57 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 10:49 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 12:01 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 04:35 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 01:55 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |