Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 68.8%
Defensive zone
Mercer 62.5%
Neutral zone
Mercer 66.9%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Mercer
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Mercer
Stamkos
Last 6: Mercer 2-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Mercer
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
55.9% (499)
-12.3%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
56.3% (126)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
58.3% (12)
+11.7%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Mercer is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Mercer shoots right. Stamkos is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (151).
Home / Away
Mercer
Stamkos
Home
41.7% (120)
55.3% (349)
Away
47.6% (145)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Mercer
Stamkos
P1
44.6%
57.0%
P2
45.4%
59.2%
P3
45.2%
51.5%
OT
0.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
48.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
44.9%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:59 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 01:02 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |