Dawson Mercer vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 39.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 79.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 78.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 77.7%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Mercer
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Mercer
Stamkos
Last 7: Mercer 2-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Mercer
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Mercer
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
50.5% (9,825)
-11.4%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
55.2% (1,729)
-14.1%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
49.6% (827)
-8.3%
On power play, Stamkos has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Mercer is 39.9% vs right-shot opponents (449).
Mercer shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,601).
Home / Away
Mercer
Stamkos
Home
40.1% (756)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
38.5% (792)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Mercer
Stamkos
P1
38.2%
49.2%
P2
39.2%
52.7%
P3
41.2%
50.9%
OT
0.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
39.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.3%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:59 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 01:02 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 04:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |