Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Duchene 52.1% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 77.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Larkin
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Larkin
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Larkin
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
53.9% (193)
-0.3%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
49.2% (65)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
100.0% (1)
-51.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +51.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Larkin
Duchene
Home
56.6% (700)
54.9% (113)
Away
52.1% (655)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Larkin
Duchene
P1
55.4%
54.9%
P2
54.7%
52.7%
P3
52.7%
51.9%
OT
59.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
54.4%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |