Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Duchene 55.6% (-1.1%)
Offensive zone
Duchene 52.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 53.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 59.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Larkin
Duchene
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
56.5% (566)
-0.6%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
61.3% (62)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
22.2% (9)
+24.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Larkin
Duchene
Home
56.0% (654)
56.6% (318)
Away
54.8% (639)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Larkin
Duchene
P1
54.4%
57.2%
P2
55.9%
55.1%
P3
55.2%
55.6%
OT
64.0%
81.3%
Final 5 min
53.8%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
55.4%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
56.5%