Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.4% vs 52.2%). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Duchene 51.8% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 62.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 65.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 61.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Larkin
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larkin
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Larkin
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
51.1% (366)
+0.0%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
61.5% (65)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
16.7% (6)
+31.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +31.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Larkin
Duchene
Home
51.7% (686)
51.7% (201)
Away
53.0% (658)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Larkin
Duchene
P1
52.5%
49.0%
P2
52.7%
57.1%
P3
51.4%
49.2%
OT
61.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |