Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on offensive-zone draws (54% H2H, 37 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Domi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Domi 48.8% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Domi leads 40-38 in 78 meetings
Offensive zone
Domi 56.8%
Defensive zone
Domi 55.5%
Neutral zone
Domi 55.4%
Result
Max Domi favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Larkin
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
40
(78 meetings)
38
40
Larkin
Domi
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
17
20
Larkin
Domi
37 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Domi
6
7
Larkin
Domi
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
15
13
Larkin
Domi
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
48.1% (4,339)
+3.5%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
53.5% (636)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
48.8% (41)
+1.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Domi is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,370).
Home / Away
Larkin
Domi
Home
53.9% (6,277)
49.8% (2,614)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
47.8% (2,402)
By Period
Larkin
Domi
P1
52.7%
48.7%
P2
53.1%
48.3%
P3
52.0%
49.7%
OT
58.4%
43.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Domi
46.0%▼
51.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 11:11 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 15:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 11:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 09:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 09:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 2 | 02:17 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 05:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Max Domi |