Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Colton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Colton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Colton 51.1% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Colton leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Colton 62.5%
Defensive zone
Colton 64.8%
Neutral zone
Colton 64.9%
Result
Ross Colton favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Larkin
Colton
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Larkin
Colton
Last 10: Larkin 2-8 Colton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Colton
2
3
Larkin
Colton
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Colton
0
4
Larkin
Colton
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Colton
0
3
Larkin
Colton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Colton
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
51.6% (1,803)
+0.0%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
48.8% (162)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
34.5% (29)
+15.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Colton shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Colton is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,297).
Home / Away
Larkin
Colton
Home
53.9% (6,277)
52.0% (1,015)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
50.3% (979)
By Period
Larkin
Colton
P1
52.7%
53.7%
P2
53.1%
52.6%
P3
52.0%
47.9%
OT
58.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Colton
46.0%▲
44.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 10:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 2 | 06:37 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 14:00 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 16:54 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 14:32 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 1 | 08:31 | Neutral | Ross Colton |