Dylan Larkin vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.3% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 81.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 63.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 79.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
51.0% (408)
+4.9%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
0.0% (6)
+57.4%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
35.9% (78)
+10.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +57.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (339).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
56.0% (654)
50.8% (258)
Away
54.8% (639)
44.9% (234)
By Period
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
54.4%
51.6%
P2
55.9%
45.2%
P3
55.2%
47.6%
OT
64.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
55.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 03:34 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |