Dylan Larkin vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 18-13 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 84.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 82.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 79.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 83.0%
83.0%
17.0%
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
13
(31 meetings)
18
13
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
6
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
6
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
1
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
44.8% (8,775)
+6.8%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
50.6% (844)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
37.8% (880)
+12.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,858).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
53.9% (6,277)
46.5% (5,361)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
42.8% (5,150)
By Period
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
52.7%
45.1%
P2
53.1%
43.9%
P3
52.0%
45.2%
OT
58.4%
43.2%
Final 5 min
53.2%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:43 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 02:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 02:26 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 02:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 01:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 03:34 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:39 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 19:53 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 03:09 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 16:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 3 | 06:41 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |