Dylan Larkin vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 65.1%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 64.5%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 67.0%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 65.1%
34.9%
65.1%
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
46.0% (250)
+5.1%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
70.6% (17)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
31.8% (22)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
51.7% (686)
50.3% (175)
Away
53.0% (658)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
52.5%
48.5%
P2
52.7%
45.9%
P3
51.4%
46.5%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:00 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:43 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |