Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Pettersson wins 38.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 44.8% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 57.6%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 56.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 52.9%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Pettersson
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Pettersson
Pavelski
Last 8: Pettersson 4-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pettersson
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
3
Pettersson
Pavelski
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pettersson
1
0
Pettersson
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (912)
52.3% (560)
-8.2%
Power Play
61.5% (39)
57.5% (113)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
34.8% (46)
62.5% (16)
-27.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Pettersson is 38.0% vs right-shot opponents (276).
Pettersson shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Pavelski
Home
45.0% (489)
54.2% (360)
Away
43.7% (508)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Pettersson
Pavelski
P1
46.0%
54.5%
P2
45.7%
56.7%
P3
42.2%
50.8%
OT
23.1%
30.8%
Final 5 min
46.0%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▲
41.5%
44.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 12:02 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 16:04 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 06:03 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 06:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 03:14 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 1 | 09:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |