Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 19 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Staal 55.3% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 24-18 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 71.2%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 76.9%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 79.1%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Rodrigues
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
24
(42 meetings)
18
24
Rodrigues
Staal
Last 10: Rodrigues 2-8 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
7
12
Rodrigues
Staal
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
9
Rodrigues
Staal
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
6
3
Rodrigues
Staal
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,897)
55.9% (14,654)
-9.7%
Power Play
44.8% (299)
62.7% (1,762)
-17.9%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (220)
47.9% (2,907)
-5.2%
On power play, Staal has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,436).
Rodrigues shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,583).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Staal
Home
47.1% (1,836)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Rodrigues
Staal
P1
46.9%
55.2%
P2
46.1%
55.9%
P3
44.4%
54.8%
OT
50.0%
56.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
45.8%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 05:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | OT | 04:36 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | OT | 01:55 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 16:54 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 07:28 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:41 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 13:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 13:20 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |