Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.3% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 85.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 69.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 65.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (250)
56.2% (983)
-10.6%
Power Play
40.0% (30)
55.5% (254)
-15.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
52.0% (102)
-2.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rodrigues is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Rodrigues shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Home
46.5% (142)
56.2% (697)
Away
43.6% (140)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
P1
42.9%
54.5%
P2
50.0%
55.5%
P3
42.4%
57.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.0%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |